Anyone who is not a keen follower of Indian politics will be
thoroughly confused by what is happening .And I don’t blame them because
politics in India is more shallow and
less predictable than in any other part of the world (maybe Pakistan beats us
here for the simple reason that there are actually two Pakistans inside one
–ISI Pakistan and “Democratically”
elected Pakistan!!).There are multiple parties and all of them are vying for
the same space –power .Which is all what politics is about –power .But to change ones stand so
dramtically in its quest is not quite acceptable .After all human beings don’t and
should not pursue things by instincts .They must pursue things using their mind
and chasing some ideals .No matter what the political pundits say about
“politics is the art of the possible”,or “one day is a lot of time in politics”,the
fact of the matter is that politics must have some enduring and lofty aims .
But to students and observers like me –Indian politics is
simple to understand .Get power –whether you have to murder ,beg or steal .Or
whether to have to rob Peter to pay Paul .And never before has the level of politics fallen
to such lows as it has now.And I am not
even talking of the scams -2G,Coalgate ,Helicopter deals (a former Chief of the
Airforce is involved –sorry but Caesars wife must be above suspicion )etc ,etc
etc .There are too many of them .What I am referring to is the ideological pits
to which it has sunk .No one knows which party is secular-though the Congress
seems to have a patent for it .No one can say that any political party is not
infested with criminals .No political party has any stand on foreign policy (save
pass a resolution against a resolution passed by Pakistan in its assembly),no
political party has any consensus on economic development or a educational
vision.There is complete chaos , as to where we are at the moment and where we
want to go.That is the reason why I feel that the present government is about
to fall .
Lets have a look at the stand of the DMK .Its been a ally of
the UPA since 2009 .All of a sudden it wakes up and wants the government to
pass /support a resolution or move one in parliament that says that there has
been a “genocide” by the Srilankans against the Tamilians in Srilanka .The
civil war has ended in Sri lanka many years back .So why the demand now ?And
how can any government ever take a stand when the reverse also happened –the
LTTE went on rampage many times when Prabhakaran was at the peak of his power
?And was not the LTTE responsible for the assassination of the Indian Prime
Minister Rajive Gandhi? Asssasinating a Prime Minister of a country is like
waging a war against it .How can any govt support such a resolution .?Not only that -States cant run Indias Foreign Policy .In any case ,spoiling relations with Srilanka would throw it into the arms of China .Is it sensible to pass such a resolution?
Not only that –the DMK wants that a independent
international agency be set up to investigate the crimes against the Tamilians
in Sri Lanka .Hah!!Will we allow such a thing to happen if Pakistan demands it
in Kashmir and in the Naxal infested areas ? (infact Pakistan has asked for it
has on several occasions).Will we allow someone else to interfere in our internal
affairs ?Is it not against the basic tenet of Indian foreign policy ?Have we
not passed a resolution just a week back and told Pakistan not to meddle in our
internal affairs ?Does the DMK now expect us to change all that ?The 90 year
old Karunanidhi should have now gone beyond the petty politics of power and
should have grauduated into a statesman .Like aging wine he should have got
better .But no –he was adamant because he was looking for a exit route from the
UPA .Otherwise ,why would he have not raised the issue in 2009 .?Or why would
he have ever joined the government (though I am not discounting the fact that
the Govt might have promised him something in a clandestine deal ).
I am glad that the UPA did not accede to the above
ridiculous demand .But it has left the government extremely dependent on what
is called the M+M factor .The Mulayam and Mayawati support .Both the BSP and
the SP are extremely unreliable allies –if their past record is any indication
.If one of them pulls out now –the government falls .And its very close to that
.Mulayam Singh Yadav is demanding the sacking of the strong Kurmi leader Beni
Prasad Verma for some remarks he made (the guy is crazy –he makes these very
provocative remarks time and again).It could be a reason for them to pull out
and bring the nation to a brink of a fresh election.Even otherwise ,how will
the Congress deal with let say a communal riot breaking out in UP?Will it call
the SP a communal party in that case (by the way ,100 communal riots have taken
place in UP since the SP took over
leading to the death of 34 people).?And if it does not ,will Mayawati (SPs
sworn enemy ),tolerate it .?Will it threaten to pull out ?
However there is another alignment which may bail the UPA
out at the moment .And that is if Nitish Kumar breaks away from the NDA and joins hands with the UPA.And why would he do
that ?Because the UPA would give Bihar the “special status”,he is looking for
.!!And also UPA could get a reprieve if Mamta rejoins the coalition .Thats what
I mean by saying that we lack a idealogical culture.
As I foresee it ,early elections are imminent –maybe within
3 months .It suits the SP to withdraw its outside support because it has just
won a massive mandate in UP .That popularity is fast disappearing because of
the inept handling of the state by Akhilesh Yadav.So elections are better now
for them than later.It also suits Nitish Kumar because irrespective of what he
says –his popularity is at its peak at the moment .(Amazing show of strength on
“Adhikaar Diwas” in Delhi the other day) .Its the right time for him to convert
it into votes .It suits Mayawati because she has nothing much to lose .It suits
the BJP because Narendra Modi has caught the imagination of the youth .And they
are closer to power at the centre than ever before ,though they have to do some
internal cleaning themselves .
It does not suit the Congress because frankly speaking ,I see no way it can even
dream of coming back to power .It suits the party to atleast remain in power
without governing the country .Its two kidneys (SP and BSP),are showing signs
of failure .Its two lungs (the DMK and the TMC
have collapsed).It is on
ventilator support .It is slowly dying –“the halal” way .Who will give it the
“Jhutka”?.I know it for sure .I am sure –even you know .It could be today ,tomorrow
or the coming weeks .But I cant see a government on ventilatator support and
brain dead being able to pull through .A Atal Bihari Vajpayee who was good at
managing a coalition could have turned things around .Certainly not the great academic Dr Manmohan
Singh .He was always a king in the campuses of the Universities or the
corridors of Yojana Bhavan or World Bank .But Barabanki ,Hardoi ,Saharanpur,Amethi
,Kunda,Baramullah,Dantewada,Belchi ……..?Awww –no,no,no.
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